With the first cases of infection detected on 10 March 2020, the first wave of the virus peaked in July and the beginning of August.  Thereafter, the number of cases fell to much lower levels until mid-December, when they began to rise again.  The second wave began to peak in the second half of January and the first half of February.  New cases reached 2,866 in one day on 27 January, compared to first-wave peaks of 2,036 on 18 July and 2,031 on 19 August.

 

By 23 February 2021, the official number of cases (accumulated) had reached 244,380, with 11,508 deaths.  Santa Cruz is the department with most cases, 85,611 on that date, followed by La Paz (59,637), Cochabamba (23,956), Tarija (20,513), Chuquisaca (15,091), Potosí (13,495), Oruro (11,119), Beni (11,113) and Pando (3,845). 

 

While the Añez government prioritised months of lockdown, police and army controls, decentralisation of responsibility to local government, and was involved in notorious cases of corruption such as in the purchase of ventilators, Arce has focused national government’s contribution on three main areas: the introduction of widespread testing carried out at municipal level at no cost to recipients; closer coordination with departmental and municipal governments, providing them with the necessary tests, vaccines, medicines, oxygen and staffing; and the purchase of vaccines.

 

Large numbers of tests have been ordered and distribution is well under way; 15.8 million vaccines have been ordered (5.2 million Sputnik V, 5 million Astra Zeneca, 500,000 Sinopharm and 5.1 million through the UN Covax system).  These began to arrive at the end of January.  Distribution has prioritised the inoculation of front-line and other medical staff.  3,025 new medical positions were created for departmental health bodies (SEDES) to deploy as they see fit.  The government sent a BOA plane to India to bring in drugs necessary for treatment of the virus.  Local authorities have permission to use funds not yet spent to acquire other supplies.

 

However, hospitals and particularly intensive care units (ICUs) are under great pressure, with staff still falling ill and a shortage of beds, underlining the weakness of the health system in general.

 

In order to regulate management of the virus locally, the government approved a Health Emergency Law on 17 February.  This includes the following points:

The draft bill was discussed on two occasions with doctors’ representatives, whose suggestions were largely incorporated into the final version of the law. 

 

However, doctors and health workers decided to go on strike immediately (on 18 February) until the end of the month.  They see the law as limiting their right to protest and they object to the possibility of hiring foreign doctors (such as Cubans) to replace national ones, though this is not something specified in the law.

 

Municipal and departmental elections will take place on 7 March, involving the election of mayors and municipal councils, departmental governors and departmental assemblies, and regional authorities in the Chaco.

 

Given the upheavals that followed the October 2019 general elections, sub-national elections were postponed.  These should have taken place in April 2020.  Consequently, incumbents have remained in post for a further year.

 

 

The upcoming elections have so far elicited relatively little public interest.  In part this may be because Arce’s substantial win last October has stabilised the political situation.  The Coronavirus pandemic has also limited campaigning activities.

 

However, the elections are important for several reasons.  Local government tends to play an essential role in balancing the power of national government, providing the opposition with a role to play within the established political system.  Arce has also sought a joint approach in the fight against the pandemic, coordinating with and clarifying roles of different levels of government, providing support to them with distribution of tests, vaccines and staffing.  This is significant at a time when local administration has seen its income fall because of lower shared receipts from the IDH tax on gas exports.  The ‘fiscal pact’ with local government is based on a fair distribution of available funds and recognition of the importance of regional autonomies:  several departments currently question the fairness of this distribution.

 

 

In the 2015 local elections, opposition groups won important posts as departmental governors in La Paz (Félix Patzi-MTS), Santa Cruz (Rubén Costas-Demócratas), and Tarija (Adrián Oliva), and mayors of major cities such as La Paz (Luis Revilla-Sol.bo), Santa Cruz (Percy Fernández), Cochabamba (José María Leyes, Demócratas), Oruro (Edgar Bazán) and Tarija (Rodrigo Paz).

 

The MAS won in 227 municipalities (67%) and governors in six departments.

 

Jumping forward, and recognising that national elections are not comparable with sub-national ones, the political map in October 2020 showed Luis Arce/David Choquehuanca of the MAS winning in 300 municipalities (87.7% of the total).

 

 

Polling information in this year’s campaign has been fragmentary.  Here we present findings of three consecutive polls carried out by Ciesmori.  They provide a general guide to possible outcomes in the three most populous departments.  Only the first three candidates are listed here.  Note that the predictive accuracy of Ciesmori and other polling companies has been widely questioned given their poor showing in predicting the results of the October national elections.

 

 

As of 25 February, there are still over 25% of undecided voters, making the following information a very preliminary guide only.

 

 

 

All the main candidates to the governorship of La Paz are Aymara men.  They include the present incumbent, Félix Patzi of Movimiento Tercer Sistema (MTS) who is currently in fourth place.  The race will probably go to a second round as no candidate will win outright.  This could be between Franklin Flores and Santos Quispe.

 

 

 

Luis Fernando Camacho and Mario Cronenbold are the main contenders for this post.  Amongst the other candidates is Chi Hyun Chung, evangelical pastor and a former presidential candidate.

 

 

 

In the remaining departments, initially the following candidates as governors stand out:

In Potosí, candidates include Marco Pumari (previously leader of the Potosí civic committee, vice presidential candidate with Camacho in the 2020 general elections).

 

 

 

 

At the start of the race, Waldo Albarracín (a former Ombudsman and Chancellor of the local university, UMSA) stood as candidate for Comunidad Ciudadana (CC), Unidad Nacional (UN) and Sol.bo.  Disagreements amongst the parties led to Sol.bo leaving the alliance and presenting its own candidate.  Later, given the lead shown by Iván Arias, Albarracín pulled out, leaving CC and UN without a candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Others standing for mayor in Santa Cruz include Angélica Sosa, until recently mayor of Santa Cruz replacing Percy Fernández and Roly Aguilera, for Demócratas.

 

 

 

 

On taking over from the interim government, Arce found the country facing its worst economic predicament since 1985.  This was due to two main factors, mismanagement during the Añez period and the effects of the pandemic.  The successful policies pursued previously by the MAS government -- building domestic demand through welfare allowances and public spending programmes -- had been largely discarded and replaced by policies geared to promote exports especially in agriculture.

 

Some figures will give a clearer idea of this: GNP went into freefall in 2020, contracting by 11.11%.  Debt as a percentage of GNP rose steeply, with foreign debt rising to US$11.3 billion.  The Añez government borrowed against international reserves held by the Central Bank (BCB) to the tune of US$3.59 billion, reducing these to their lowest level since 2007.  Exports fell heavily to US$6.9 billion, down 21.6% from 2019.  This was partly explained by low gas prices, but also by a fall in mineral prices.  Agriculture, boosted by the sale of meat to China, was one of the few sectors to finish in the black.  Figures for the fiscal deficit stood at 12% of GDP.  Income from taxes fell 23.7%.  400,000 jobs were lost during the year, and income from remittances was down by almost half.

 

Responding to this inheritance, Arce has returned to the formula of building internal demand pursued when he was finance minister under Morales.  This is being achieved principally by increasing people’s spending power and increasing public investment, both moves designed to kick-start the economy within the framework of import substitution and increased added- value.  The main measures taken to date include:

Arce, an economist and former finance minister and David Choquehuanca, foreign relations minister under Evo Morales, lead the new government.  Early on, Arce was a member of the Socialist Party (PS-1) of Marcelo Quiroga Santa Cruz, whilst Choquehuanca has been one of the main ideologues of the MAS’ vivir bien approach, an Aymaran with clearly established principles linked to indigenous values.

 

The new cabinet is very different from those of the Morales era, with young professionals chosen as ministers.  There has been a clear move to make a break with Morales’ entourage.  As a result, most ministers are little known; they have more of a technocratic than political background.  There are now 17 ministries, with the Ministry of Cultures reinstated.  There are only three women cabinet members and one indigenous person (the minister of Cultures, Sabina Orellana).  At vice-ministerial level, some people from social organisations have been included, such as Juan Villca, campesino leader active in the August 2020 protests, who has responsibility for relations with social movements.

 

The minister for the presidency, María Nela Prada, from Santa Cruz, was active for many years as Arce’s chief of staff.  Rogelio Mayta, foreign minister, was the lawyer in the trial carried out in the United States against former president Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada representing victims of the violence unleashed in El Alto in October 2003.  Edmundo Novillo, defence minister, was a national deputy for the MAS, president of the Chamber of Deputies and governor of Cochabamba.  Ministers Marcelo Montenegro (Economy and Finance), Iván Lima (Justice) and Jeyson Auza (Health) have all risen to prominence.

 

Though there has been no statement of overall policy strategy, the government’s key priorities are coping with the health problems arising from the pandemic and restoring the country’s economic health.  However, both the democratic hiatus of the Añez government and the pandemic will have long-lasting results, with the most vulnerable striving to make ends meet.  In order to reorient the economy and correct trade imbalances, the government says it will stimulate enterprises that can substitute imports and pursue the ‘industrialisation’ of Bolivia’s raw materials, thereby adding value to exports.  Education is also a priority: after a year of virtual lockdown, the government is seeking ways to guarantee teaching during 2021.

 

On the international scene, diplomatic relations broken by Añez have been reinstated (Venezuela, Cuba, Iran) and international bodies re-joined (CELAC, ALBA, Unasur).  Importance has been given to facilitating the work of a team from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) investigating the massacres of Senkata and Sacaba at the start of the Añez presidency.

 

Above all, the low-key style of government is different from the past. This may well help to calm the waters after the upheavals of the last two years.