The Heads up Bulletin, No.131
Saturday, 12 February 2011
Market Pointers
Early market pointers – see the 4 pronged attack system at Key Racing News
Pricewise: 3.35 Newbury, Soldatino (1pt win @ 11/1 Hills) & Tarkari (1pt win @ 25/1 B365, PPower etc)
G Delamere: 3.00 Newbury, French Opera. 3.35 Newbury, Recession Proof. 3.15 Leopardstown, Joncol.
BR-Trends: 2.25 Newbury, What A Friend. 3.00 Newbury, Tchico Polos. 3.15 Leopardstown, Joncol. 3.36 Newbury, Final Approach.
Ladbrokes: Ducking. 1.10 Leopardstown, Unaccompanied & Sailors Warn. 2.45 Leopardstown, Old Macdonald. 3.00 Newbury, Cornas. 3.15 Leopardstown, Money Trix & China Rock.
Ladbrokes: Top price. 1.10 Leopardstown, Louisville Lip & Maxim Gorky. 1.45 Leopardstown, Magnanimity. 3.00 Newbury, Sports Line. 3.15 Leopardstown, Glencove Marina.
Information
Bookmaker policy, going, weather, rail and stall positions
To obtain Pricewise advised prices, check Bookmakers Policy here
Weather, going & track info, check Going from the BHA
Eye-catchers
Eye-catchers and improvers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks
Riverside Theatre (GB), 2:25 Newbury
B Geraghty 11/2/11 - I'd have no concerns about soft ground, it was on the slow side in the King George. He's won left handed at Newbury. I saw him on Friday and he gives the impression of a horse that's really coming to himself. He'll be very hard to beat.
Malin Bay (IRE), 4:30 Ayr
H Taylor 19/1/11 - promising return after a lengthy break over a trip too short, in a race where not easy to come from off the pace. Handled testing conditions, and of interest stepped up, provided not turned out too quickly.
Good Again (GB), 4:50 Lingfield
H Taylor 02/02/11 - looks in good form & travelled well into the race at Lingfield latest but denied any sort of run behind a wall of horses, when shaping like she could easily have won.
Champagne Agent (IRE), 5:00 Leopardstown
M Kelly 11/2/11 - jockey appeared to get caught flat footed on debut, and then underestimate the resolve of the winner who had flown. The pair drew a mile clear and the way he was ridden suggests he has shown them quite a bit at home.
Gallops, yards & connections
Ad hoc information from the Newmarket gallops, TV, websites, Twitter blogs, the racing press and beyond
A King, Walkon "Choc felt he couldn't get off Walkon. He's a Grade 1 winner for him. It's not an indication we fancy him more than Salden Licht."
D McCain, Drill Sergeant "We've got a great weight. It's a tough race but he has run in plenty of those on the flat and I'd like to think he'll run a solid race."
John Quinn, Recession Proof "I'm very happy with him, he is in very good form. He is a progressive young horse, the question is whether he's good enough."
W Mullins, Final Approach "He's certainly facing a stiff task (up 14lbs). He's in good form, will love the ground and the experience he gained will be an asset."
N Henderson, Soldatino "He was desperately keen before and during the race at Ascot. The trip also found him out. However I believe that's brought him to concert pitch."
P Nicholls, Tchico Polos "He's going into what looks an open race, he's had 3 weeks off and will be fresh. He'd have a chance and the ground will be perfect."
N Henderson, French Opera "Good ground will help him enormously - I believe Sandown can be attributed to very soft ground and carrying top weight in a competitive race."
P Nicholls, What A Friend "We kept him off while the ground was against him. Good to soft will be fine and it won't be anything like as soft as Haydock."
N Henderson, Riverside Theatre "It will hinge on how he has come out of the King George. He's proved he stays 3 miles. This looks the perfect stepping stone."
N Richards, Money Trix "It was difficult through December...I'm sure he has improved for his first run of the season. He looks very well."
Paul Nolan, Joncol "Looking at him now I would think he'll be 10 lengths better than he was in the Lexus."
Race Analysis
KRN narrow the field with insightful pace, draw and trends analysis
Trends & market report: Totesport Game Spirit Chase (G2, Newbury)
Since 1997 the winner has emerged from the first 3 in the betting, with (13/13) aged 5-9YO. Paul Nicholls has won 5 of the last 6 (although mostly by fielding serious Graded quality chasers).
Oiseau De Nuit & Sports Line look up against it on ratings/weights. Cornas is under pressure giving weight all round - in the past it's taken horses like Master Minded and Flagship Uberalles to handle that, and he's 0-7 going left handed.
French Opera was poor on reappearance, reportedly unable to cope with ground bordering on heavy. He has the best form and would be a danger to all if able to bounce back, although he dropped away tamely and he's got something to prove.
At the weights a slim case can be made for I'msingingtheblues - he's been below his best for some time but nevertheless ran well in the Victorchandler when outstayed over 21fl off a decent pace. 5 of his 6 wins have come on flat tracks. In smaller fields he tends to take a keen hold held up. Worth a check in-running.
Tchico Polos appears to have a good chance. Although his best form is at Sandown and Exeter he has run well at Ayr and an 8lb pull with Cornas, allied to the yard's excellent record, suggests he will win if French Opera fails to deliver.
Pace, trends & market report: Totesport Trophy Handicap Hurdle (G3, Newbury)
Nicky Henderson won 4 of last 12 (but not since 2004; Gary Moore won in 2009 & 2010, including 50/1 improver Heathcote. 5 & 6YO's do best (8/12), then 7YO's (3/12). Winners returned 4/1 to 50/1, with but all bar one 16/1 or less.
It's a hot race, normally run at a very strong pace and a potential winner needs to be 7-10lbs ahead of their mark. The trend this century has been towards lighter weights: of the last 8, 6 winners carried less than 11-00. The maximum carried to victory in the last 12 was 11-7.
Since Overturn came out the handicap has been compressed which could aid the higher weights, but this years renewal also looks to have real strength in depth. With so many hold up types lining up, there is also a query over pace and it may pay to race well in touch or prominently. It's a wide open affair.
Soldatino seems sure to improve for the run and particularly headed back down in trip but there's question mark over temperament and it's difficult assess whether he has much in hand over his mark; they do rate his chances though at Seven barrows. Solix is an unknown quantity, but even with a 5lb claim it's hard to figure he'll improve for a step down in trip on livelier ground. Salden Licht was impressive at Exeter and the form keeps being stamped, but 11-12 seems a daunting task.
Walkon will be popular. He's 6lbs well in against future races and has been highly consistent. He's also likely to attract a certain amount of lazy support despite concerns that he's a candidate to bounce, is held up and always seen to best effect off a searching pace. Ladbrokes were top price in the early market and all things considered we've preferred to focus on potential improvers:
Tarkari picked up a high rating for the way he travelled into the race against Oscar Whiskey - Raceform have him top on weight adjusted ratings - but his career is being held up by his poor jumping, already a faller and walking through the last at Ffos Las (literally). This run also comes very quickly.
Final Approach is making rapid progress for the in-form Willie Mullins and looked miles ahead of the handicapper at Leopardstown in the valuable MCR hurdle, going to the front on the bridle and finding plenty. He's got a nice weight, albeit with a sharp rise, races prominently and despite being prepared specifically for the MCR could have more to offer.
Everything went wrong for Drill Sergeant at Kempton, pulling under restraint stepped up in trip, but he's set to carry a very low weight and Henry Brooke takes off a further 7lbs. He's likely to do much better when able to get to the front and that looks a possibility here. He's got strong form on flat LH tracks (incl Haydock), could easily be an improver and looks distinctly overpriced.
Recession Proof made rapid early season progress and looks set up for this with a quiet (but impressive) prep on the fibresand at Southwell. He lost 2 shoes at Lingfield and did well to win in conditions that probably weren't ideal. He's unexposed, races midfield or prominently and looks wide-open to improvement.
Pace, trends & market report: Irish Hennessy Gold Cup (G1, Leopardstown)
Ran in last 2 months (14/14), at least one top 2 finish in last 2 starts (12/14), winner of a grade 1 chase (14/14). Running this over the field offers just one qualifier, The Listener, although tenuous as his top 2 finish was in Nov 2009, has hardly been seen since and is approaching veteran status now.
A near qualifier is Money Trix who has come 2nd in the G1 Lexus chase twice (both ahead of Joncol) and loves it here, as of course does The Listener. Course form has often mattered, with multiple winners Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon accounting for 7 of the last 14. Clearly Grade 1 proven, Leopardstown specialists should not be dismissed lightly. Florida Pearl won it at 12, Beef or Salmon won at age 10 & 11. Equally as close to qualifying is Joncol, who was a close up 3rd behind Money Trix LTO, is a dual G1 chase winner and last years' victor.
The Listener is going to jump off and set an honest pace and is top rated by both Raceform and Timeform. He's had one run back, running with credit in the Lexus before fading after the last, a race which they say he's taken particularly well. He should find one or two too good but Florida Pearl showed it can be done and you couldn't entirely rule him out.
China Rock looks on an upward curve. He's generally campaigned right handed, hasn't been seen for 92 days and wouldn't fit the profile of recent winners, but the yard rated his chances before the ground deteriorated and in company with Grade 1 novice winner Kempes faces a difficult task in the conditions.
Money Trix found this one race too far last year after a busier schedule, but he has been lightly raced this season. He's always been capable of stringing 2 together and yet oddly dismissed for the original fixture, despite being a course specialist with strong recent form. The race should be run to suit and the yard are confident he's improved since the Lexus when the bad weather disrupted his prep.
Joncol took this last year, and looks in good shape after running a big race in the Lexus, with the Nolan team in very good form and convinced he has come on significantly since. He improved 2lbs after Christmas last year and although closely matched on form with Money Trix, probably just rates the most likely winner.
Trainer/Jockey Stats
Leading trainer/jockey combinations with a runner (% strike rate at venue):
Ayr: A Whillans & B Harding 25%, N Richards & B Harding 24%
Newbury: N Henderson & A McCoy 64%, P Nicholls & A McCoy 33%, N Henderson & B Geraghty 27%, P Nicholls & N Scholfield 27%
Warwick: D Pipe & J Farrelly 50%
Wolvs: M Easterby & P Makin 60%, M Botti & A Kirby 44%, G Moore & G Baker 25%
Lingfield: P Hedger & D O'Neill 50%, J Noseda & G Baker 46%, B Smart & T Eaves 33%, K Ryan & P Makin 27%, G Moore & G Baker 25%
Hot trainers (over last 14 days, with runners declared):
W P Mullins 10-23 43%, D McCain 8-24 33%, Jim Boyle 5-15 33%, M Johnston 7-22 32%, Ian Williams 6-19 32%, K A Ryan 4-13 31%, R Harris 5-18 28%, N Henderson 14-52 27%, C Longsdon 3-12 25%, P F Nicholls 6-26 23%, A McCabe 5-23 22%, M Bradley 3-14 21%, G Moore 9-44 20%, T Vaughan 5-25 20%
Leading course trainers (with runners):
Ayr: Pauline Robson 7-16 44%, R Wilson 4-12 33%, D McCain 18-64 28%, R Nixon 5-19 26%
Newbury: N Williams 8-28 29%, P Nicholls 53-200 27%, N Henderson 56-241 23%
Warwick: N Henderson 11-32 34%, A King 27-110 25%, D Pipe 16-65 25%, N Twiston-Davies 23-95 24%
Wolvs: Lawney Hill 3-10 30%
Lingfield: B Smart 5-15 33%, J Noseda 46-174 26%, J Balding 9-34 26%
Notable trainers on the cold list (with runners). Days/runs since win:
S Davison 393/72, C Down 244/70, C Kellett 308/63, M Sheppard 304/56, J McGregor 462/53, J O'Shea 153/49, S Forster 288/46, E Wheeler 263/44, C Dunnett 91/44, T George 40/44, R Summers 622/43, A Middleton 329/39, S Kirk 47/36, D Whillans 252/34, J Bridger 59/34, Henry Daly 40/34, M Barnes 132/33, P Salmon 222/31, D Ivory 59/31
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The 'Heads up' bulletin is designed to bring together an early summary of market indicators, eye-catchers and other useful information as an aid to form study. Readers who focus on whether prices offered represent value in relation to a careful weighing of chance, will undoubtedly find the report most useful long-term.
We welcome your feedback, comments and ideas at all times.
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