The Heads up Bulletin, No.140
Saturday, 23 April 2011
Market Pointers
Early market pointers – see the 4 pronged attack system at Key Racing News
Pricewise: 3.10 Sandown, Aimigayle (1pt win @ 17/2 Coral).
G Delamere: 3.10 Sandown, Poker De Sivola. 3.45 Sandown, Dick Turpin. 4.20 Sandown, Afsare.
BR-Trends: 3.10 Sandown, Meanus Dandy. 3.45 Sandown, Dick Turpin.
Ladbrokes: Top Price - 3.10 Sandown, Major Malarkey.
Ladbrokes: Ducking - 3.10 Sandown, Aimigayle.
Information
Bookmaker policy, going, weather, rail and stall positions
To obtain Pricewise advised prices, check Bookmakers Policy here
Weather, going & track info, check Going from the BHA
Eye-catchers
Eye-catchers and improvers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks
Rastaban (GB), 3:05 Musselburgh
G Nutting 23/3/11 - Showed excellent attitude at Ffos Las to get ahead after briefly short of room. Needed all of that and improvement assured stepped up. Sort to win a decent handicap. [Ground suitable and yard has good at Musselburgh - Ed.}
Poker De Sivola (FR), 3:10 Sandown
KRN 20/4/11 - Fresh, well handicapped thorough stayer. Ferdy won it in 2007 with Hot Weld, 7 days after his Scot National victory. Good form on fast ground, the yard really fancied him for Ayr and is 6lbs better off here. Cheek pieces could be the making of him as he tends to let his attention wander in the early stages.
Wild Desert (FR), 4.35 Haydock
KRN 16/4/11 - 2nd start for in form yard developing a really good reputation with new recruits. Is considered well handicapped and suited by a big bustling handicap on good ground. Did too much last time and can do better in the hands of Felix De Giles.
Amno Dancer (IRE), 5.15 Musselburgh
KRN 22/4/11 - Ran well under a positive ride, 2nd start for yard over CD, hindered by wide draw. Travelled best of all, but early exertions told. Coming into form, well handicapped with decent draw. 7lb pull with Ravi River (incl claim) and should receive a nice tow from Call Of Duty. The Gillie an obvious danger but might want it softer.
Maurisca (FR), 2.50 Huntingdon (Monday)
P Naughton 20/4/11 - A revelation on good ground and Charlie Longsdon rates him nap material, "I've found a perfect 0-125. The ground is sure to be ideal and he's my best chance of the week". Felix De Giles takes the ride (usually a positive).
Gallops, yards & connections
Ad hoc information from the Newmarket gallops, TV, websites, Twitter blogs, the racing press and beyond
P Nicholls, Tataniano "It has been a struggle to get him right but he does go well fresh. He has done loads of work bit is bound to improve for the run at Sandown."
C Tizzard, Oiseau De Nuit "He's in the form of his life and you have to say he was a tad unlucky at Aintree. He's prone to the odd mistake, but has schooled well."
N Henderson, French Opera "He comes out top today on BHA ratings and the race looks ideal for him. With conditions also likely to be perfect, he must have every chance."
M Hourigan, Church Island "It's a bad race if he's carrying top weight, that's the problem in any race. He's in good form and loves the track...has always been the plan"
P Hobbs, Balthazar King & Triggerman "Richard Johnson thinks Balthazar King is the better of the two but I think he might be wrong, the trip will definitely help Triggerman. That said I hope they don't go too fast for him...It's close between them"
Nigel T-D, Baby Run & Major Malarkey "Baby Run is in very good form and is a brilliant jumper..he's won on quick but without a doubt is better on softer, Major Malarkey is certainly not without a chance. He unseated at Chelt but has schooled well since."
F Murphy, Poker De Sivola "He'll run a big race. He was travelling very nicely and just coming on the bridle when he had nowhere to go at Ayr. He had struggled to go the early pace, so he wears cheek-pieces for the first time."
S Smith, Aimigayle "Everything is in her favour. People think she has to make the running but we've only done that to make her races more of a stamina test. Her form is standing up and she's come in her coat, which is encouraging."
P Murphy, Maktu "He's 5lbs well in as the weights were framed before Newbury. I've had this race in mind...I know he handles the ground and I couldn't be happier with him."
P Nicholls, Meanus Dandy "He's enigmatic but would have a chance. He likes going right handed and has won at Sandown, but he's also probably a bit high in the weights."
M Channon, Music Show "I'm very pleased with her. She looks fantastic. She won't be at her best tomorrow but we're thrilled with the way she's done..a good place to start"
R Charlton, Cityscape "In an ideal world I would prefer it gd-sft. I think the rising ground in the straight will help. I haven't been able to do quite as much work as I would have liked. He went to Kempton a fortnight ago which helped."
R Hannon, Dick Turpin "He has done exceptionally well through the winter and looks a million dollars...he has done plenty of work and this race is made for him."
L Cumani, Afsare "We had a minor setback last season but he's fine now. Afsare has done well over the winter. He is a nice progressive horse. I'm hopeful of a good run."
Race Trends
KRN narrow the field with insightful pace, draw and trends analysis
Bet365 Mile: Won in pattern company (10/10), adjusted RPR of 125+ (10/10), Officially rated within 8lbs of RPR top rated (10/10), Aged 4-5 (9/10). Richard Hannon has won this with his last 5 runners and Dick Turpin looks a very solid looking trends match. Roger Charlton won this race in 1992.
Trainer/Jockey Stats
Leading trainer/jockey combinations with a runner (% strike rate at venue):
Kelso: H Johnson & W Renwick 43%
Haydock: A King & R Thornton 25%, S Smith & H Oliver 25%
Sandown: P Nicholls & R Walsh 37%, N Henderson & A P McCoy 27%, M Stout & R Moore 21%
Musselburgh: H Johnson & F Tylicki 38%, A Brown & S De Souza 33%, D Barron & P Makin 32%, M Johnston & G Fairley 26%, T Easterby & D Allan 24%, M Johnston & J Fanning 24%, B Smart & T Eaves 24%
Newton Abbot: P Nicholls & R Walsh 38%
Nottingham: P D Evans & R Evans 40%, H Cecil & I Mongan 38%
Hot trainers (over last 14 days, with runners declared):
S Burrough 3-3 100%, H Dunlop 3-5 60%, A Turnell 4-10 40%, J Given 6-16 38%, W Haggas 3-9 33%, Ed Dunlop 5-16 31%, C Tizzard 5-16 31%, C Tizzard 5-16 31%, G Baker 3-10 30%, P Bowen 4-14 29%, N Henderson 12-44 27%, B W Hills 6-22 27%, P Nicholls 11-44 25%, C Longsdon 3-12 25%, S Mullins 4-17 24%, M Channon 7-31 23%, R Harris 4-18 22%, F Murphy 4-18 22% D Nicholls 10-48 21%, R Fahey 9-43 21%, D McCain 6-29 21%, D Barron 4-19 21%
Leading course trainers (with runners):
Carlisle: H Johnson 42-171 25%
Haydock: N Williams 4-15 27%, C Longsdon 4-16 25%, P Nicholls 10-43 23%, D McCain 27-134 20%
Sandown: P Nicholls 43-137 31%, C Dore 3-10 30%, N King 3-10 30%, M Murphy 4-14 29%, W Haggas 13-52 25%, M Stout 35-153 23%, N Henderson 26-132 20%, D Pipe 15-74 20%
Musselburgh: B Smart 25-108 23%, J Camacho 3-13 23%, M Johnston 26-131 20%
Newton Abbot: P Nicholls 44-134 33%
Nottingham: E Johnson Houghton 5-21 24%
Notable trainers on the cold list (with runners). Days/runs since win:
D Thompson 334/81, R Johnson 189/77, M Sowersby 307/67, John O'Shea 223/67, M Salaman 229/58, Pat Murphy 385/56, L Williamson 166/54, W Young 634/52, H Graham 398/48, L Perratt 197/45, C Teague 241/44, G Foster 222/41, L Featherstone 199/41, John Harris 110/39, B Mactaggart 503/37, D Bourton 173/55, Joanna David 202/33, L Normile 162/33.
-------------------------------------------------
The 'Heads up' bulletin is designed to bring together an early summary of market indicators, eye-catchers and other useful information as an aid to form study. Readers who focus on whether prices offered represent value in relation to a careful weighing of chance, will undoubtedly find the report most useful long-term.
We welcome your feedback, comments and ideas at all times.
-------------------------------------------------
The ‘Heads up’ Bulletin - the best Saturday read
Key Racing News
