The Heads up Bulletin, No.102
Saturday, 07 August 2010
Market Pointers
Early market pointers – see the 4 pronged attack system at Key Racing News
Pricewise: 2.50 Haydock, Icon Dream (1pt win @ 25/1 Boyle, Coral, Hills). 3.25 Haydock, Breakheart (1pt win @ 6/1 Hills, Lads)
G Delamere: No column this week
BR-Trends: No column this week
Ladbrokes: None
Information
Bookmaker policy, going, weather, rail and stall positions
To obtain Pricewise advised prices, check Bookmakers Policy here
Weather, going & track info, check Going from the BHA
Eye-catchers
Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks
Kindest (GB), 2:05 Newmarket
H Taylor 21/7/10 - travelled as well as anything latest, winner just got first run off a muddling pace. Well ahead of mark and ready to win again with a stronger pace to aim at. Best on good ground or softer.
Titbit (GB), 5:25 Newmarket
H Taylor 02/06/10 - Likely to prove much better than the bare form of Wolverhampton win, when hindered turning for home (hands & heels). Initial mark looks lenient, is in excellent hands, looks progressive and one to follow.
Dhaamer (IRE), 8:20 Lingfield
A Barr 24/6/10 - appreciated all of the mile at Newmarket and one to watch stepped up to 10fl+. Will have learned a lot from that and very much looks the type to improve with racing.
Gallops, yards & connections
Ad hoc information from the Newmarket gallops, TV, websites, Twitter blogs, the racing press and beyond
Chris Wall, Kindest "We're hoping for more rain as she must have good ground or softer. Showers are forecast so we're hopeful. She's in good heart and the trip/track will suit her well."
John Holt, Jordaura "The easy ground will be to his advantage. He likes the course and was only beaten a head there in May in a similar handicap."
Ruth Carr, Moheebb "You can ignore his most recent run because he pulled off a shoe. The softer the ground the better, and it's encouraging he's a C&D winner."
Brian Meehan, Pleasant Day "He'll love the easy ground, which he'll be encountering for the first time this year. He's in great form"
Richard Fahey, Old Joe Mac "We like Our Joe Mac a lot. We have just been waiting for the ground for him."
Luca Cumani, Khor Sheed "We're moving her up in class after a very pleasing win last time. We have always had this race in mind since."
S Bin Suroor, White Moonstone "I was very pleased with how she won at Ascot. She's an improving filly and deserves to take her chance in a race like this."
H Dunlop, Green Moon "I think the ground may have been too quick for him at Ascot, also he'd had 3 quick races in succession. I think he'll like the ground." [note high in cold trainer list as present - Ed]
Clive Cox, Poet "We were very pleased with his run at Newbury...he's far more suited to soft conditions. I'm very happy with him. Last time was a sighter with his confidence and he goes there in excellent order."
Tom Tate, Distant Memories "He's in good form...I'm sure he'll run his normal game race, but if they get plenty of rain it will help him considerably."
Barry Hills, Sunraider "I've been looking forward to running him over 7fl. He has a good draw and should have a very good chance."
A Balding, Breakheart "I've been keen to try him with give in the ground. My worry is he's drawn 16, which may be a bit of a problem."
Walter Swinburn, Desert Kiss "She had a poor draw when going for her hat-trick at York. We've freshened her up for this and engaged a good apprentice."
Miscellaneous
Other in-form or improving runners from the in-house Key Racing News database
Saturday angles:
2.10 Ascot, Prohibit: KRN 1/8/10 - has been running consistently ahead of mark in cheek pieces ever since Windsor and ran another fine race latest from a good draw in the Steward's Cup. Goes well at Ascot, although needs it to fall right.
2.45 Ascot, Christopher Wren: KRN 1/8/10 - big scopey individual highly regarded by yard. Ran a blinder here at the Royal meeting improving for 12fl, and was value for much further at Newbury latest when the bit slipped 4fl out. One to follow.
3.10 Newmarket, Sunraider: KRN 07/10 - in very good form according to Barry Hills, but wants it on the soft side of good to be seen at his best.
4.55 Newmarket, Satwa Gold: KRN 12/7/10 - progressive handicapper bang in form according to trainer. Held up (strong gallop essential), needs good ground or faster. Today's conditions appear borderline, but may suffice if the showers stay away.
Market report: The Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3)
3YO's have generally done best (7/10), with Jukebox Jury in 2009. Their stand out candidate here is Green Moon who looked progressive until suddenly finding it all a bit much at Ascot. In general, the Classic generation have been beatable.
Prior to that Green Moon was ahead of Red Badge, who himself beat both Distant Memories and Poet at Newbury on 17th July over 10fl on good ground. But as collateral form goes you'd want to take it with a pinch of salt. If Green Moon gives his running there could be little between them.
Class Is Class made sudden improvement LTO, settling much better in his 2nd time visor off 10fl pace in a good time, and he could be another Stout improving 4YO. On ratings he looks closely matched with the very consistent Distant Memories.
Of the others Godolphin's Rio De La Plata is surely better on fast ground (I thought we'd established that last year) and combined with the trip is likely to find his stamina stretched. South Easter hasn't gone on and looks out of his depth. Les Fazzani though will relish the conditions and is likely to make this a proper test - anything that wins here will have to stay and Les Fazzani herself could take a bit of catching.
On paper there is little though to choose between Class Is Class, Distant Memories, Les Fazzani & Green Moon and any theory to hoist one above the other depends on guesswork. They are 5/1, 5/1, 4/1 & 5/1 respectively. But in such a muddling field is there anything we've overlooked?
I think we should consider Poet @ 14/1. He will love the conditions and there were distinct signs of revival at Newbury under the care of Clive Cox, who hasn't had him long. He was a Group 3 winner last September for Aiden O'Brien and it would be no surprise to see him getting into gear with Meydan a fading memory.
The conditions are working out nicely for him and this is very much his time of year. If Les Fazzani really pours it on he's not cast iron to stay, but we know he has the class and is around 3 times the price.
Poet looks each way value and distinctly underrated.
Trainer/Jockey Stats
Leading trainer/jockey combinations with a runner (% strike rate at venue):
Redcar: M Channon & C Catlin 44%
Haydock: M A Jarvis & N Callan 50%
Newmarket: M Johnston & R Hills 40%, S Bin Suroor & F Dettori 36%
Lingfield: J Noseda & G Baker 75%, M Botti & M Dwyer 60%, J Gosden & N Mackay 43%, H Cecil & T Queally 32%
Hot trainers (over last 14 days, with runners declared):
G A Harker 5-13 38%, J Noseda 5-16 31%, G A Butler 3-10 30%, M A Jarvis 4-15 27%, Miss L A Perratt 4-15 27%, H R A Cecil 3-11 27%, G A Swinbank 7-27 26%, Ian Williams 4-16 25%, T D Walford 3-12 25%, B J Meehan 9-40 23%, S Bin Suroor 7-31 23%, D Elsworth 3-13 23%, R Hollinshead 3-13 23%, A M Balding 6-27 22%, J R Weymes 4-18 22%, W R Swinburn 4-19 21%, B W Hills 8-40 20%, B Smart 5-25 20%
Leading course trainers (with runners):
Ayr: P D Niven 4-15 27%, G M Moore 3-15 20%, Mrs L Stubbs 3-15 20%
Redcar: Sir M Prescott 5-22 23%
Haydock: M A Jarvis 25-84 30%, Sir M Stout 12-42 29%, Sir M Prescott 6-25 24%, Mrs R A Carr 4-17 24%, B W Hills 31-135 23%, W J Haggas 10-48 21%
Newmarket: S Bin Suroor 25-93 27%, J Noseda 21-92 23%, Sir M Prescott 3-14 21%, J Gosden 32-157 20%, C F Wall 11-54 20%, J W Hills 5-25 20%
Lingfield: J Noseda 43-185 23%
Notable trainers on the cold list (with runners). Days/runs since win:
J Barclay 941/87, Peter Grayson 178/57, M Dods 42/56, H Dunlop 70/52, J R Holt 183/51, A Berry 44/51, A P Jarvis 70/46, Miss J Fielden 58/45, C J Teague 99/43, T T Clement 329/36, P D Evans 8/36, E J Alston 37/34, J D Bethell 64/33, Mrs J McGregor 273/32, P D Cundell 355/31, A J Martin 35/31, Mrs L J Mongan 100/30, P S McEntee 61/30, S C Williams 44/30, J L Dunlop 22/30
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The 'Heads up' bulletin is designed to bring together an early summary of market indicators, eye-catchers and other useful information as an aid to form study. Readers who focus on whether prices offered represent value in relation to a careful weighing of chance, will undoubtedly find the report most useful long-term.
We welcome your feedback, comments and ideas at all times.
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