eNews - 19 February 2010

We almost had a Captain Al quartet of winners in the Fillies Nursery at Kenilworth last year – he got 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th but we had a multi-sire quartet in the juvenile event at Kenilworth last Saturday; the winner, Six Blue Notes a daughter of Qui Danzig, Captain Al’s Emerald Cove was 2^nd, Grey Eminence was third and a Count Dubois was 4^th. Two-year-old racing is always so exciting – my old pal PK always reminded me that there is nothing more honest in racing than a 2yo.

The juvenile season has started to hot up and the 2yo Sire Log is starting to take shape – interesting news for Count Dubois’ and Dynasty fans later in this report and we have some observations to share with you on the overall stallion base in SA.

Progress and innovation are always considered to be good. However, not all new developments are good news in our view. When we learnt that the old racecards were to be replaced by a Computaform guide that would hold an entire weekend’s race meetings in one cover we thought this an excellent idea.

Sad to report that the new Computaform Express is not great value, nor is it informative and it certainly won’t, in our view, sell more tote tickets than the old one did – on the contrary it has already evoked the ire of some of racing’s most loyal and established punters. The new book has an abbreviated form line which is almost meaningless. It omits the weight of horses that won or ran 2^nd in previous starts.

Those of us that have taken years to try and understand what effect runner’s own body mass may have on form lament the loss of that information as well. Another significant omission is past Course and Race records. Race times are vital – punters need to know if a horse won by ½ a length in a fast run race or 7 lengths in a slow run race. A bet on the races is not like a mindless one-armed bandit in a casino or a lottery ticket – it involves skill and good judgment but to be able to employ those skills punters need information and as much of it as possible.

The new card omits the names of breeders as well. They are such a vital element of our industry so why not add their info – does it cost any more. Even more importantly the powers that be have now also done away with the names of each horse’s grooms. It took me many years, as Chairman of the Grooms’ education trust, to gain acknowledgment of their existence in the old race card – now this information has been removed without any consideration of the sensitivity of this change. Grooms are an integral part of the game and vital to the well being of our horses – talk about looking after the punters interests – hah! I am extremely grateful that the Sporting Post still exists (though sadly not available on course because the racing operators have decided to not allow it to be sold there). I definitely will not be purchasing a ComputaForm Express – until they get it right they can ‘express’ themselves into the bin.

We are often asked about the flying horse in our logo and the motto under it. The logo is Pegasus the mythical winged horse. Sired by Poseidon, in his role as horse god and foaled by Gorgon Medusa – plenty of power in that combination.

The legend says that anywhere the winged horse struck his hoof to the earth an “inspiring spring burst forth” – like the source of life. He was used to carry thunderbolts for almighty Zeus. It is also written that Pegasus sprang from the blood issuing from Medusa's neck as Perseus was beheading her; similar to the manner in which legendary Athena was born from the head of Zeus.

Pegasus aided the hero Bellerophon in his fight against the unbeatable Chimera (monstrous fire breathing creature in Asia Minor). Chimera had the body of a lion with a snake's head as a tail, and a goats head on its spine. Pegasus was fearless.

In order to read Law at Wits in those days one needed Latin, and it was in those hated Latin classes that I discovered mythology and the legendary flying horse. I was drawn to Pegasus. When I started my own business I was given a picture of the logo that we use today with the wish “may all your horses fly” and this is the wish I have passed to all of my clients in sending them my logo.

The motto ‘Equo Prodesse’ translates “to be for the horse” and embodies my passion. The horse is my reason to get up in the morning and I can think of no better motivation than that. We all live and work in a fantastic industry surrounded by incredible people with unbelievably talented horses and horsemen. What a game!

Before I deal with the incredible Gr1 trio; J&B Met, Investec Cape Derby & Klawervlei Majorca Stakes, I am delighted to report that Count Dubois still leads the 2yo Sire Log by stakes again; number of individual winners, number of wins, as well as percentage of winners to runners. Mike Miller delivered the most recent winner, last week, for owners Steve Sturlese and Peter de Marigny; Countless Times, is the only first timer to beat winners so far this season. He won very well! I know that an offer has been declined by the owners.

The progeny of Count Dubois are increasingly popular. Hopefully this season his best 2yo’s won’t all be exported like so many from his 1^st two crops. He has more exciting runners carded soon which will hopefully add to the four that have put him at the head of the two year old sires list already. Interesting to note that with 4 individual winners to his credit already he has double the number of winners of any sire of 2yo’s on the log at the same stage of the last season. There are not many of his older horses around, so it’s exciting when we see 2yos run – that said, we watched St John Gray’s very talented filly (bred by Maine Chance) win her 7^th race at the Vaal on Thursday this week by an incredible 7.5 lengths – she was 4^th in the R600,000 Gr2 Emerald Cup in September last year and then won 3-in-a-row including the Summer Speedsters Stakes. She has won 7 and placed 5 times in 18 starts for earnings in excess of R540k.

I am on record as having said that the top 5 sires at stud in SA today are as good as any of the previous Champions that ever stood at stud in SA, I mean ever. Even more exciting is that we have a better and wider spread at the top than we have ever seen before. That said, the news in the lower ranks remains as modest as ever. However, one can get a mare to the sire of a Gr1 winner for under R5,000 (Badger’s Drift got Ivory Trail who beat Pocket Power in the Gr1 Champions Cup – breaking a 38yo record and at just R3,000 last season he is probably the best bargain amongst what our industry calls “bread & butter” sires!).

Amongst the older brigade in a slightly higher price range you can get to 2x Gr1 producing sires; Manshood (Ipi Tombe) and Saumarez (Diamond Quest). Both are old fellows now and aren’t going to make you a fortune at Yearling Sales – despite their success they remain un-commercial. The bulk of the current stallion crop is priced between R8,000 and R40,000. There are 46 in the R8,000 to R20,000 range alone and include; 15 new stallions (and sires that are about to have runners). Of those with runners, only 4 have produced Gr1 winners in this same range.

With Victory Moon no longer around it is up to Dynasty to continue as the most promising of the rest in this range. The Dynasty nomination that was offered at the J&B Met charity auction met enjoyed a lot of support and was eventually sold for R40,000 – rest assured that the syndicate won’t be using that as a guide in setting his fee in 2010 and it is too early to talk about what his fee might be but it certainly won’t be what it was last year.

There are 15 stallions in the R20,000 – R40,000 range. Three of these have produced Gr1 winners but many still consider them no more than “bread and butter sires” – it’s all about commercial appeal. We have to be mindful that even really good sires like Sportsworld were only appreciated after he died, and he was always called a middle order sire. Well, if he was, then so are these 3. There are 6 new sires in this price range, they have been very well supported and if they have what it takes, they have the numbers in place to make the grade.

The vast wealth of South Africa’s current stallion power lies in the +R40,000 range. Many in the group command fees well over R100,000 – and before the “recession” one even got to command R250,000 with payment up front – the huge books he covered at that price indicate that the market were happy to pay up. The sires in this group attract more than half of the mare population. Five of them are very old; two more are almost on the pension list as 19-20 year olds and only one is under 10 years old so the younger ones are getting all the action.

The really active sires are between 14-16 years which means that we desperately need some of the new sires to shine through very soon, to keep the sort of depth we enjoy now. This is extremely relevant in the current economic climate. SA breeders have, over the past 10 or so years, imported between 10-15 new stallions every year and of late have imported some very classy and expensive horses. It’s getting harder to syndicate expensive horses as breeders feel the pinch. The concern has to be whether or not we are going to see the same high calibre of import this year.

Only 3% of stallions make it to the top and failure is very costly. Few can afford that sort of write-off. So our industry relies quite heavily on the somewhat cheaper so-called “bread and butter” stallions. They don’t command high fees but are capable of getting Gr1 winners and are more likely to make a better average profit in the sale ring. The tough thing about breeding to a really expensive sire is that if you don’t crack a good looking one you could well make a loss on your total input. We had all better learn to appreciate the middle order horses more.

Have you decided where you are going to send your mares this year? As the real effects of the downturn start to sink in, I fear that we are going to see the sell-off of mares this year – not only locally but internationally. This will provide a wonderful opportunity for local breeders to upgrade – but they will have to spring clean before they do that. Question is, with the lower-to-middle market already under strain - what do they do with the stock they want to sell? These are never abandoned and will still need covering. Perhaps some of us will keep extra mares and speculate on the market improving soon. I think it will – our sale industry is almost recession proof.

Planning matings for top end mares always has commercial connotation. Choosing matings for the lower order mares can be a minefield and yet so rewarding. A word of advice: - be extra cautious this year and do your homework well. Only support sires that are sure to be marketed well after your mare has been covered and when your yearling goes on sale. It’s not enough nowadays for stallion owners to sell nominations and forget about promoting the stallions stock when it comes to sales time. If you haven’t requested nominations to the more popular sires by now you are probably going to find yourself at the end of a long waiting list so act soon.

Our industry is long past breeding with horses that do not have good race records just because they are a brother to something important. We went through that phase and thankfully survived it – some like Northern Guest did really well but the surest way to load the dice in your mating plans is to breed to stallions that had racing class. Look at the current list and do the math. All of the current top 5 were top class racehorses.

There was a time when SA Breeders imported only top class racehorses like Abadan II (TFR123), Drum Beat (King Stand Stakes winner TFR 131), Fairthorn (TFR122), High Veldt (TFR 126), Mexico II (121 lbs), New South Wales (123 lbs), Persian Wonder (TFR 119), Royal Pardon (TFR120), Sun Compass (TFR120) and Wilwyn (TFR 129). Only the best racehorses were considered.

In recent times we have enjoyed horses like Foveros (TFR 121) and Royal Prerogative (TFR 119) and both of them left a significant mark on our stud book both as Champion Sires and as very important broodmare sires. The common denominator: - all good racehorses. There were some really good racehorses that failed at stud here but these were in the minority. Failure was mostly directed at the lesser performed – extremely rare for a poor racehorse to make a good sire. Forget about the exceptions. We are blessed with some top class form in our stallions today – be wise – use it.

The J&B Met this year was most enjoyable – despite lunch upstairs costing a stomach-wrenching R1715 a head (that’s got to be the most expensive seat at any sporting event in SA). Quite an exhausting but fun filled day – I had to do my usual yoyo trick, bouncing between the parade ring, 30 guests in my box and a table on the 4^th floor.

The theme “In Full Colour” added to the excitement and the vibrant colours made the crowd electric. The layout of facilities this year made it seem as if there were more people than ever before, but considering the economy, I’m sure there weren’t. That said, the marketing of the event was fantastic. I heard the field being discussed on radio many times and even had an interview with Cape Talk myself. The public attraction to champions is always superb – Pocket Power has given our industry a fantastic boost – well done Mike Bass, you are a legend. We are delighted for Marsh, Arthur and Rena and all connected to this wonderful horse and his full sister. Most especially the whole Bass team and jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe (grandson of legendary jockey Tiger Wright). Turnover on the day was only 2% down on last year but I am told that it was the most profitable J&B Met day yet. I can believe that, they certainly charged enough for basic amenities. Guess that’s the future of racing – and why not? We want to see these magnificent racedays maintain their high standards.

Aside from the excitement of the J&B Met, we were privileged to have Veronica Foulkes, breeder and part-owner of Joey Ramsden trained Gr1 Investec Cape Derby winner Bravura at our table. Veronica has been in the news quite a lot lately and apart from the Derby winner, she very nearly followed up in the Gr1 J&B Met when Mother Russia breathed fire at the side of River Jetez to nab second place. The Investec Cape Derby is unquestionably one of the most important classic races in the South African racing calendar; the winners and placed horses in this race always become the focus of international attention and many of the runners go on to succeed at stud. In the spirit of a true Derby – to win this event you need speed and stamina and that’s what we need in our stallions.

Since Investec became associated with the race it has delivered triple G1 winner Rabiya, Gr1 Durban July winner Eyeofthetiger as well as the highest rated horse ever bred in

South Africa

Jay Peg. Russian Sage, dual G1 winner now back in South Africa won it and last year’s renewal of this event fell to Durban July winner Big City Life. Of course Dynasty also graduated from this event to win the “July”.

Investec are huge sponsors of sport globally and having cut their teeth in race sponsorship with this important Derby. In 2009 they pulled off a major coup by securing the ultimate event – the most important Derby in the world - Epsom. We should support sponsors in our industry and these guys deserve that in spades from the racing fraternity.

Dynasty was the only stallion in the Gr1 Investec Derby with three runners. His son Irish Flame was third favorite, having won three previous starts including the Politician Stakes (L). He was badly bumped at the 400m mark, hit the rails and came down unbalanced – watch this one in future. His misfortune in this race accepted, he has been the subject of international interest. I tried to buy him for a client in Hong Kong but we did not succeed – I have since heard that the horse has been sold to a local investor – our consolation is that the horse will remain here to campaign locally for awhile yet and this means a lot to his sire’s earnings potential here. It remains an enigma that overseas earnings are not added to their sires’ statistics.

Another son of Dynasty, Paddy ‘O Riley, (whose dam I raced in partnership with my old chums Paddy Wilson and Jack Ward, and who I currently breed in partnership with Veronica Foulkes) ran fourth. The winner Bravura, trained for Ingrid and Marcus Jooste and Veronica Foulkes by Joey Ramsden and ridden once again by the inimitable Anton Marcus, made this his fifth win in as many starts. This time he beat no less than the Guinness winner Noordhoek Flyer, (a R2.6 million yearling which we rated A1 at the sales, but couldn’t afford). That one came into the race with an impressive stakes record. The third horse, Robert the Bruce (son of our stallion Jallad), trained by Justin Snaith and ridden by Felix Coetzee for Alec and the Hon. Gillian Foster made our Derby a very exciting event from both a client/ friend and stallion point of view.

This field like all of those that have gone before will deliver future champions. Another of them was sold on the eve of the race; Dynasty’s son Ancestral Fore was purchased by the powerful Mike De Kock stable for Dubai Sheikh Khalifa. We hope to see him continue to race here at bit longer for the sake of his sire’s statistic.

Dynasty now has 21 winners from his 1^st crop that have won 32 races and 3 juveniles that have won 1^st time out recently. He has close to 30 more first crop runners preparing to join the ranks – so plenty of scope left in his statistics. Proving his continuing popularity he was the leading sire at the Cape Yearling Sales last weekend by average value of lots sold. Serial cape champion trainer Mike Bass bought a Dynasty colt from Dan De Wet’s Zandvliet Stud (of Pocket Power fame) for R500 000, the second highest price at the sale.

There was good money at the Cape Sales for the right horses – top price was R700,000 but the average was pulled down by the number of yearlings on offer not well grown. Terrence Millard once said “they sell by weight” and this sale was no different.

The Gr1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes resulted in a historical dead heat between two daughters of Jet Master; Loveisintheair and Gluwein. The latter bred by Vaughan Koster and raced by him in a leased partnership which includes Lee Westwood, Mike de Kock and Co. This Gr1 win was especially important to the Cheveley Kosters as it was Vaughan’s own first Gr1 winner. Vaughan had a big team of supporters in our box and to add to the fun. Jet Master also produced the J&B Met winner River Jetez. Well done to all the connections.

The last race of the day saw back to back victories for a daughter of our late stallion Wolfhound in the G2 J&B Reserve Stayers. The Gary Player bred Sangria Girl trained by Greg Ennion for John Harrison made this her sixth win and pushed her earnings to over R530,000. Well done Greg & John!

Captain Al remains the leading sire by percent winners (18%) with 7 individual stakes winners and 6 stakes placed runners. He has 9 lots on offer at the Vintage Sales in a month’s time (13^th and 14^th March), and he has 29 on offer at the National Yearling sales. Please have a look at the attached excerpt from Thoroughbred Owner & Breeders (Feb 2010 – Issue 66) about Captain Al’s position on the Leading Global Sires by Stakes Winners log.

Two budding entrepreneurs approached us earlier this week and asked us to support their new website which is to be dedicated specifically to stallions. Carl Wallace and Handre van Heerden, son of popular Cape owner and breeder Juan van Heerden, have joined forces to set up an exciting new website called www.sires.co.za. The site is already online but is set for its official launch in March 2010.

We are adding all of the stallions in our portfolio to the website and urge other stallion managers/ owners to support them. It really is a great opportunity for stud masters that don’t have their own website to gain exposure for their stallions to this increasingly popular means of advertising. Our own website has a very healthy viewing profile and it has taken many years of marketing and improvements to get to where it is. This one will no doubt follow that pattern but it has to start somewhere, so let’s give it the thumbs up and support them in their efforts.

One cannot do enough advertising in this business and having a site dedicated to sires only (that will be updated regularly) has real value. The electronic system will not replace hard copy in our game for many years but it is definitely the future. The problem with hard copy is that it has such limited scope – it dates very quickly and in the case of annual Stallion Registers it takes a whole year before one sees the update. The internet is the answer to achieving quick access to new info and we want to encourage these energetic young chaps to do it well.

The Equimark catalogue arrived this week – their sale is on the 13^th and 14^th March with 280 lots on offer. Weird that there are no lots by either Jet Master or Western Winter on the sale but all of the other top sires are represented – most are well covered at this event. This is the sale that recently delivered Big City Life as well as Captain Al’s Gr1 winning son, Exhilaration.

The BSA National Yearling Sales catalogue is on line at www.tba.co.za. Sires with the most lots on sale include Jet Master with 53 lots on offer whilst Silvano and Black Minnalousche each have 43. Count Dubois has 18, Dynasty just 6 (many of his supporters are using the Equimark Sale to market this crop and he had a number of breeders who are racing themselves – he got about 50 foals in that crop – his smallest). Fort Wood has 16, Jallad 19, Kahal 31, National Emblem 25, promising new sire Tiger Ridge has 26 and leading sire of 2yos last season, Var, has 28. Multiple champion sire Western Winter has 29. New (but sadly recently deceased) sire Eyeofthetiger has 2 on the National Yearling Sales and 10 at Equimark.

Champion Sire ranking in SA has definitely become a numbers game in this country, as it is in the antipodes. More opportunity = more earnings. It’s as simple as that, provided the sire can get quality winners he will lap up the opportunity. Our market enjoys sires with a high soundness factor and good win strike rate. Everyone accepts that Gr1 wins are rare and if the cheaper sires like Casey Tibbs can produce the likes of Big City Life and Badger's Drift can get a giant killer like Ivory Trail, why not take a dip at them for less risk? Because of the World Cup there is huge pressure on setting dates for all of the events in our industry this year.

Previously an unimaginable happening, even Durban’s premier tourist draw card, the Vodacom Durban July has been moved! And along with it the KZN sale which has now moved to Jhb, sadly on the same weekend as the Investec Derby in the UK – 4^th and 5^th June. It remains to be seen what, if any, impact world economy will play a role in sale results. Judging from a presentation made to a social gathering of top role players in the racing and breeding industry last December we could even expect growth in sale turnover. Good news for all if this becomes a reality.

We have been asked to sell a 4yo daughter of Model Man called Sugar Club (see attached pedigree). She won 2 races as a 3yo last season and was placed 6 times in 15 starts. Her dam Warrior Wind by Complete Warrior is a stakes winner of 6 races from 2-4yo and was Gr2 and Gr3 placed 2^nd. She’s had 5 runners, 5 winners. This is the family of European champions; Wild Deb and traces to a family who produced Kris and Diesis and champion filly 2yo in England Soft Angels. My client wants a quick sale so please call me to negotiate. We are desperately looking for stakes winning mares that will retire to stud this year. Please call us if you have anything to offer.